If someone gains weight, they can hide it a little. Grow a beard. Wear baggy sweaters. Whatever. But when an NBA team is struggling financially? It can't hide it. Rasheed Wallace famously loves to say, ball don't lie. Neither do the seats. Especially in the lower-level sections between the baskets, the ones that blend into the background of every live telecast. If attendance is sparse enough, the blurry collage of fans, colors, and empty seats almost looks like a Monet painting. In Year 2 of the No Benjamins Association a disturbing number of home games have that Monet feel. Fudged attendance figures have become as commonplace as jokes about Shaq's weight. Two weeks ago, I took my daughter to a Magic-Clippers game that seemed about half-full … you know, just like every other Clippers game. The Staples Center has a capacity of 19,000 people and 30,000 pounds of Botox. When I played the How many people are here? game with Lenny, a friend in my section, I guessed 10,000 and Lenny guessed 9,500. The announced crowd that night? 16,750. Sorry, Clippers. Seat don't lie. Fortunately, Ken Berger, a CBS Sportsline reporter, obtained attendance figures for the first quarter of the season. Only one ticket-related statistic matters in professional sports: net gate receipts. (The attendance number doesn't matter because it's so easy to manipulate; teams either fib or boost the total by giving tickets away for absurdly low prices, hoping to recoup some of it through concessions and merchandise sales.) According to Berger's information, net gate receipts have dropped 7.4 percent from last season. Eight teams (Philly, Sacramento, Charlotte, Memphis, Minnesota, Milwaukee, Indiana and Atlanta) already reside in the dreaded We Make Less Than $500,000 Per Game Club, and that number could swell once non-contenders either gut their teams or start tanking for lottery purposes. The long-term point: Until the NBA revamps its financial system after the 2010-11 season, we're going to see a handful of teams willingly weaken themselves just to save money. We got a taste with the Shaq/Jefferson trades last summer, but this will be different. This will feel more like _base_ball: the haves preying on the have-nots. This year's luxury tax line is $69.2 million. Next year's line will drop to between $62 million (worst-case scenario) and $65 million (reasonable). What do you do if you own New Orleans, a .500 team that has $73.1 million committed this year and $71.8 million committed next year? Do you just suck it up and lose $12 million in tax money for these next two seasons on top of significant revenue losses? Or do you do something to change your destiny. You know … like … (Hornets fans are screaming right now. I'm sorry. They have to hear it. They need to know.) Like giving away David West … (They're screaming, No! Don't say it! No! but it has to be said. I'm sorry.) Or … (gulp) … Chris Paul? The short-term point: We're headed for a particularly feverish trading season. Heading into Christmas, I can't remember a longer list of teams that absolutely have to make a move for one of three reasons: Group A: To save money and/or shed cap space for next season (and the next 2-3). Group B: To get something for a franchise p_layer_ before he flees in free agency. Group C: To give away a top-shelf p_layer_ as a way to shed an unpalatable contract or three. And we have Group D: Boston, Dallas, Cleveland, Miami, Houston, Portland, and the Lakers … or as they're more commonly known, The Teams That Can't Wait To Take Advantage Of Someone In Group A, B and C. I am including Miami despite its nightly Monet painting; the Heat have $50-plus million in expiring contracts for panic trades in case Dwyane Wade plays the I don't want to waste another season in my prime, I'm leaving in July for Chicago or New York if you don't get me some help for the 2010 playoffs card. Which, by the way, should be happening within the next five weeks. There's only so many times you can kick it to Mario Chalmers for a wide-open three and watch it clang off the rim. So where do we stand? Let's figure out the identity of the sellers, along with their payroll situations and free advice from the VP of Common Sense and Picasso of the ESPN Trade Machine. (By the way, both nicknames are mine. I can't have enough nicknames. I'm like Apollo Creed.) All projected 2010-11 payrolls do not have salaries for 2010 draft picks factored in, obviously. (Important note: I am excluding the Nets, who are being sold right now to Mutant Russian Mark Cuban and won't do anything major before February. I'm also excluding Utah, which jumped the gun on me by shedding cap space in the deal with the Zombie Sonics: Matt Harpring's expiring contract and impressive rookie Eric Maynor for nothing. How dare you jump the gun on my column, Utah! You couldn't have waited a day?) New York Knicks (group A) 2009-10 payroll: $83.1 million Projected 2010-11 payroll: $27.3 million • The VP's Take: They need to clear $18 million of Eddy Curry/Jared Jeffries contracts before next summer's LeBron Sweepstakes, either by trade or by spiking their Gatorade with heroin. The second move would be a criminal act; the first move could only happen if they threw their last two lottery picks (Danilo Gallinari AND Jordan Hill) into the trade (or trades). They need to carve out $45-48 million in cap space so they can lure LeBron, Bosh, and either Wade or Joe Johnson as The Ultimate Big Three. Everything else will take care of itself. • Mitigating Factor: Knicks GM Donnie Walsh has been offering Al Harrington around for ECs (expiring contracts), then insisting the other team takes Curry or Jeffries as well. Gee, thanks, Donnie! Really, you're throwing one of them in for me free of charge? How nice of you! He's the annoying guy in your fantasy league whose e-mails you finally just start deleting. Donnie, you need to get a little more realistic. And soon. • The VP's Verdict: Trade! Trade! I am thinking something like this … Fake Trade 1a: Gallinari, Curry and $3 million to Minnesota for the Mark Blount/Brian Cardinal ECs. Basically, Minnesota would be paying $10 million next year to get Gallinari for 2011, 2012 and 2013. Total financial commitment: $23 million. Isn't a lottery pick and potential 50-40-90 percentage guy worth $23 million over three years (just $9 million for the last two), especially for a team stupidly playing the we're waiting for Ricky Rubio, so tuck yourself in and enjoy three years of losing and misery! card? Of course. Fake Trade No. 1b: Jeffries, Hill and $3 million to Sacramento for Kenny Thomas's EC. Same principle, less money: You just bought a lottery pick for the price of Jeffries' 2010-11 contract ($6.5 million, and by the way, he's a valuable defender). The same offer could work for the Nets (Bobby Simmons), Zombie Sonics (Etan Thomas) and Blazers (Steve Blake/Travis Outlaw). Someone will bite. Back to the Knicks: Scott Layden and Isiah Thomas did so much damage to that franchise that, really, there's a certain symmetry in them emerging from the 2000s without keeping a single lottery pick thanks to the aforementioned two trades. But if they cleared the decks completely, couldn't they seduce LeBron with the offer of building his own franchise from scratch in America's biggest city